Jaipur : Jaipur For the first time in Rajasthan, by-elections are to be announced on 7 assembly seats simultaneously next month. Preparations have begun. Other parties including BJP-Congress have also intensified preparations strategically. Lobbying has also started. If we look at the trend of the last 10 years, out of these, only one seat is Salumbhar, on which BJP has won in 2018 and 2023. Out of the remaining 6 seats, 4 go to the account of Congress. On the other two seats, independent or tribal party wins. It is clear from these situations that this time the results of the by-election will create restlessness among the people.
The reason is that this by-election will also test Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma. The question is whether his work of the last 9 months will be able to bring victory on those 6 seats on which BJP has been losing for the last two times? Will the trend of these seats change? If this trend breaks, then CM Bhajanlal will emerge as an established face in politics. At the same time, this result can be uneasy for the Congress, because in the by-elections held in the last 10 years, Congress has dominated. It is known that Dausa, Deoli-Uniyara, Khinvsar, Jhunjhunu and Chaurasi seats have fallen vacant due to MLAs becoming MPs, while Salumbhar and Ramgarh seats have fallen vacant due to the death of MLAs.
Whether Congress is in power or in opposition, it has won the by-elections both times
In the last 10 years, assembly by-elections were held on 16 seats. In the by-elections held on 8 seats during the previous Vasundhara Raje government, the opposition i.e. Congress won 6 seats. In the by-elections held on 8 seats during the previous Ashok Gehlot government, the ruling party i.e. Congress won 6 seats. Out of these 16 seats, BJP could win only 3 seats, while RLP won one seat with the support of BJP.
Factors that affect these seats
Dausa: Murarilal Meena won once from BSP and twice from Congress. Meena, Gurjar and Brahmin factors dominate here. The influence of Minister Kirodi Lal Meena in BJP and Murari Lal Meena in Congress will be visible.
Deoli-Uniyara: Meena-Gurjar factor dominates. Trend in favour of Congress. Congress will give ticket to Meena here and BJP will give ticket to some Gurjar.
Jhunjhunu: Here it is Jat versus other factor. In the last 16 elections, a candidate from other caste has won only 3 times.
Khinvsar: Jats dominate. Victory and defeat revolve around Hanuman Beniwal.
Ramgarh: A seat with huge polarization. BJP will face tough competition, Congress will rely on emotional card.
Chaurasi: Tribals are dominant. 70% votes are theirs. Dominance of BAP.
Salumbhar: BJP has been winning for the third time. There will be emotional benefit as well.
