Jaipur : By-elections have been announced for 7 assembly seats in Rajasthan. Voting will be held on November 13 for Dausa, Jhunjhunu, Chaurasi, Khinvsar, Salumber, Ramgarh and Deoli-Uniara. The results of the elections will be declared on 23 November. The politics of the state has once again heated up after the announcement of by-elections on 7 seats within 10 months of the Assembly elections-2023. Excluding Salumber assembly seat, BJP had lost 6 other seats in the last assembly elections. In such a situation, BJP will take the work of Bhajan Lal government among the people to increase its numbers in the assembly. At the same time, Congress will try to garner votes with the help of anti-government issues. Besides, Congress and its allies may also face each other on Chaurasi and Khinvsar. In this context, these two seats will also be very important.
‘Murari or Kirori’, which side will the camel sit on in Dausa?
Meena and Gurjar are considered the center of politics in Dausa. This seat became vacant after Murarilal Meena, considered close to Congress leader Sachin Pilot, won the MP election from Dausa. There is a lot of discussion about the claim of his family members from this seat, in which the names of wife Savita Meena and daughter Niharika are coming to the fore. Savita Meena has also contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. However, many names including GR Khatana, Naresh Meena and Sandeep Sharma have also appeared in the list of contenders.
Whereas the name of Shankarlal Sharma, who had lost the last election to BJP, is once again being discussed. One name in the list of claimants is that of Jagmohan Meena, brother of Dr. Kirodilal Meena. Possibly, if any member of Murarilal Meena’s family gets the ticket in front of Jagmohan Meena, this contest can be quite interesting. Because in such a situation this election will also be linked to the reputation of Murarilal Meena and Kirori Lal Meena. However, this situation will become clear only after the announcement of tickets.
Salumbar: Equation between BAP-Congress important in BJP’s stronghold
This seat had become vacant after the death of BJP MLA from Sulambar seat, Amritlal Meena on August 8, 2024. The reason for Congress’s defeat in the Assembly elections-2023 was Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP), which contested the elections for the first time. Amritlal Meena of BJP got 80 thousand 86 votes and Raghuveer Singh Meena of Congress stood second with 65395 votes. Whereas BAP’s Jitesh Meena got 51 thousand 691 votes. This time many questions remain regarding the alliance of Congress and BAP. In case of no alliance, BAP may once again prove to be a headache for Congress. Congress last won elections from here in 2008. Then Raghuveer Meena of Congress had won by 23 thousand 353 votes due to getting 65 thousand 140 votes. But since then BJP has been continuously winning. In such a situation, this by-election is also important for Raghuveer Meena. Because after losing the last election he seemed inactive.
For Raghuveer Meena, who was once a member of the CWC Committee of the Congress, winning the assembly elections this time will be very important for his political career. His supporters are talking in hushed tones about Raghuveer Meena’s strong claim, but the list of claimants within the party is quite long, which also includes the names of Raghuveer Meena’s wife Basanti Meena and former Sarada chief Reshma Meena. Late MLA Amritlal Meena’s wife Shanta Devi, his daughter Priyanka Meena, his two sons Kapil and Avinash are much talked about in BJP. However, Narendra Meena is also being considered a very strong contender. Along with this, the names of Jaya Meena, Durga Prasad Meena or Bhagwatilal Meena can also appear as candidates of the party.
Jhunjhunu: What will happen to Rajendra Gudha on the seat dominated by Ola family?
Jhunjhunu, the traditional seat of Congress, has remained under its control since independence due to the Jat-Muslim equation. Congress has been continuously waving its flag here since the last four elections. After the election of Brijendra Ola as Lok Sabha MP, by-election is to be held once again on this seat. Taking forward the legacy of veteran Congress leader and Union Minister father Shishram Ola, Brijendra Ola maintained his dominance. Considering their strong political hold, the names of members of the Ola family are also visible among the party’s contenders. Apart from Brijendra Ola’s son Amit Ola, daughter-in-law Akanksha Ola and wife Rajbala Ola, one name of Dinesh Sunda is also in this list.
At the same time, prominent names from BJP are Vishambhar Punia, Shubhakaran Choudhary, Rajendra Bhambu, Bablu Choudhary, Rajesh Babal, Harshini Kulhari, Santosh Ahlawat, Banwari Lal Saini and Mukesh Dadhich. Here, the name of Rajendra Gudha has started being discussed once again. Rajendra Gudha, former MLA from Udaipurwati and a two-time minister in the Gehlot government, had created a lot of controversy through the stories of Lal Diary. After this he joined Shiv Sena (Shinde). But leaving Udaipurwati, he is now seen creating a stir in Jhunjhunu also. To find his political ground, he gathered supporters by celebrating his son’s birthday in Jhunjhunu. Recently, videos of his programs also went viral, due to which his chances of contesting elections have increased.
BAP is spreading its foot in Chaurasi Vagad region, test tough for BJP
Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram, a hereditary organization of the Sangh, has been working in the tribal area for a long time. In the Mewar-Wagad region of South Rajasthan, the Sangh has been doing cultural promotion work through this organization. According to experts, BJP’s hold in Vagad-Mewar has strengthened due to the coordination of the Sangh. But now BJP has started facing challenge from Bharat Adivasi Party. On the other hand, this area was once dominated by Congress with the support of veteran leaders like former Chief Minister Haridev Joshi and Mohanlal Sukhadia. Today, Congress is facing existential crisis in the same area.
BAP had made a grand entry in the 2023 assembly elections by winning 3 seats. After which, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP placed its bet on rebel Congress leader Mahendrajit Singh Malviya. But Rajkumar Rot, who was contesting Lok Sabha elections for the first time, defeated this veteran leader by a margin of 2.47 lakhs. Not only did Malviya lose the Lok Sabha elections, but the party won the by-election in his stronghold Bagidaura assembly seat. Now the next battle will be seen in Chaurasi by-election. If we talk about BAP’s contenders for this seat, the names of Kantilal Roat and Mohanlal Roat are at the forefront. Whereas Congress can bet on former MP Tarachand Bhagora and BJP can bet on Sushil Katara.
Difficult for BJP in Congress stronghold Ramgarh!
Ramgarh assembly seat of Alwar has been a stronghold of Congress. While the Congress does not want to leave any stone unturned to save its stronghold, the BJP is also trying to make all the political moves to conquer the Congress stronghold. After the death of MLA Zubair Khan, it is said that only his family member will get the Congress ticket. His wife Safia Khan has also been an MLA before.
On the other hand, BJP had to face defeat in the 2023 assembly elections due to the rebel leader. Zuber Khan of Congress had defeated Sukhwant Singh of Azad Samaj Party by a margin of 19 thousand 696 votes. While BJP candidate and nephew of Gyandev Ahuja, Jai Ahuja was at third position. Actually, when Sukhwant Singh did not get the ticket from BJP, he rebelled and contested the elections from Azad Samaj Party. BJP can once again bet on Gyandev Ahuja, who has been active for more than one and a half decade.
Deoli-Uniara: Who is the Gurjar leader in BJP?
If we talk about the equation of Deoli-Uniara seat of Tonk, there are 46 thousand Gurjar voters and 55 thousand Meena voters. The candidature of leaders from both Meena and Gurjar communities is possible from the Congress camp. In which the first name is that of Prahlad Gunjal, who contested the elections from Kota-Bundi Lok Sabha seat. At the same time, the names of Dheeraj Gurjar, former MLA Ramnarayan Meena and Harish Meena’s son Hanumant Meena are also in the news.
BJP has been betting on Gurjar leader only on this seat. The list of names of Gurjar leaders on this seat is long. But the real question is which Gurjar leader will BJP bet on? The prominent name among BJP contenders is Vijay Bainsla. Due to the legacy of his father Colonel Kirori Singh Bainsla being associated with Bainsla, who is giving a tough fight to Harish Meena in the 2023 assembly elections, it is not easy for the party to ignore him. The fact is also that despite losing the election, he has remained active for the last 6 months. In this, the names of former MLA Rajendra Gurjar, party’s national secretary Dr. Alka Gurjar and former Lok Sabha seat convenor Naresh Bansal are also in discussion as strong contenders. However, former MLA Rajendra Gurjar was also accused of rebellion in the 2023 elections. After which, in a letter written to the central leadership after the election results, many BJP officials also demanded their expulsion. In such a situation, his claim may be in danger.
Khinvsar: One last shot for Jyoti Mirdha?
Political conflict has once again intensified in Jatland. Jyoti Mirdha’s name is once again in the headlines from Khinvsar seat of Nagaur. If Jyoti Mirdha contests the elections from BJP, then this election will be very important for her. Because after the assembly elections of 2014, 2019 and 2023, this year he had to face defeat for the fourth consecutive time in the Lok Sabha elections. The name of Rewat Ram Danga is also running as a contender from BJP. On the other hand, the picture is not clear on whether Congress will support its alliance partner RLP or not. Whereas there is discussion about the candidature of Narayan Beniwal or Hanuman Beniwal’s wife Kanika Beniwal from RLP.
