Jaipur : The dates of by-elections to be held in Dausa, Salumber, Jhunjhunu, Chaurasi, Khinvsar, Ramgarh and Deoli-Uniara assembly seats of Rajasthan can be announced today. The Election Commission is going to hold a press conference in Delhi at 3:30 pm. Out of these 7 seats, Congress had Ramgarh, Dausa, Jhunjhunu and Deoli-Uniara. While Khinvsar was held by RLP, Chaurasi was held by BAP and Salumber seat was held by BJP. Encouraged by the victory in Haryana elections, BJP has made different plans to win all these seats. At the same time, India alliance is not visible in this by-election to be held after the Lok Sabha elections. Congress has also made preparations to contest elections on all seats.
Who has the upper hand on which seat?
BAP Party has dominance over the tribal belt seat Chaurasi. Rajkumar Rot has won two consecutive elections from here. Khinvsar is considered to be the strong stronghold of Hanuman Beniwal. Gurjar Meena votes are in a decisive position in Devli Uniara and Dausa assembly seats. The prestige of Congress leader Sachin Pilot and BJP government minister Kirori Lal Meena is also attached to these two seats. Jhunjhunu seat is a Jat dominated seat. The Ola family has a long history associated with this area. BJP is making every possible effort to blossom the lotus here. Sympathy card is going to be the biggest factor in Ramgarh and Salumber seats. BJP has the upper hand in Salumber and Congress has the upper hand in Ramgarh. At both the places, tickets can be given to the family members of the deceased MLAs.
All the parties including BJP and Congress have completed brainstorming regarding the names of the candidates. The names of the candidates will be announced after the election dates are announced.
Devli-Uniara assembly seat
Deoli-Uniara assembly seat of Tonk district has become vacant after Harish Meena became MP. The by-election to be held on this seat will also be an election for the prestige of Sachin Pilot. In the assembly elections held in 2023, Harish Chandra Meena of Congress had won this seat for the second consecutive election by defeating Vijay Bainsla of BJP by 19 thousand 175 votes. In this Gurjar-Meena dominated seat, all the equations are according to the candidate rather than the party. The great thing is that this is one of the few seats in Rajasthan where Gurjar-Meenas vote together.
Advertisement
Air India Flight Bomb News: Mumbai-New York Flight at Delhi Airport at Delhi Airport Emergency landingAir India Flight Bomb News: Mumbai-New York Flight at Delhi Airport Emergency landing
Vote equation of Deoli-Uniara
There are a total of 3 lakh 1 thousand 575 voters in Deoli-Uniara assembly. Among these, the maximum number of 65 thousand (ST) Meena voters are there. After this, the number of (SC) Bairava, Regar, Khatik, Koli Harijan voters is around 61 thousand. There are about 57 thousand Gurjar voters. Mali community has about 12 votes. Brahmin votes are around 15 thousand. The number of Jat voters is also around 15 thousand. Vaishya-Mahajan voters are around 8 thousand. Rajput voters are around 4 thousand. The number of Muslim voters is 14 thousand. Whereas other castes have about 58 thousand votes.
Ramgarh assembly seat
Ramgarh assembly seat of Alwar district, which was vacant due to the death of Congress MLA Zuber Khan, is adjacent to Haryana. Congress has mostly dominated this seat. But Bharatiya Janata Party has also won the elections here 4 times. Senior BJP leader Gyan Dev Ahuja has been MLA thrice. Since 1990, Congress has always fielded only Meo candidates in the elections here. Whereas Bharatiya Janata Party makes a Hindu its candidate here. From 1990 onwards, Zubair Khan was dominant. In 2018, his wife Safia Zuber Khan won the election. This time, due to opposition from his wife, ticket was given to Zuber Khan and he won the election, but due to poor health, he died in September. In the last assembly elections, BJP gave ticket to Jai Ahuja and Congress to Zuber Khan, but with the number of candidates being more in BJP, Sukhwant Singh rebelled and contested the elections and BJP suffered loss due to this. On the basis of sympathy, Congress will give ticket only to Safia Khan from Zuber Khan’s family or Zuber Khan’s son Aryan.
Ramgarh’s vote equation
There are a total of 2 lakh 71 thousand 117 voters in Ramgarh assembly seat. If we look at the mathematics of votes, Meo community has the maximum number of 80 thousand votes. After this SC has 50 thousand votes. Similarly, there are 35 thousand voters from Rajput community, 25 thousand from Punjabi/Sikh community, 15 thousand from Jat community, 15 thousand from Saini community, 10 thousand from Brahmin community, 10 thousand from Bania community and 5 thousand from Gurjar community. Congress believes that if Meo and Dalit votes go in favor of Congress then victory will be easy. Because the turnout of Meo votes goes up to 90 percent. Apart from this, there is also a cadre of Congress votes in other castes, hence Congress is intending to play the sympathy card by giving tickets to the Zuber family.
salumbar assembly seat
Salumber is ST reserved seat. Here, late Amrit Lal Meena became MLA for three consecutive terms. Before this, Congress leader Basanti Devi Meena and before that Congress leader Raghuveer Singh Meena were MLAs. There are about 2.95 lakh voters in the assembly. In this, men are 150265 and women are 144883. In the 2023 elections, Amritlal Meena of BJP got 80086 votes, Raghuveer Singh Meena of Congress got 65395 votes and Jitesh Kumar of Bharat Adivasi Party got 51691 votes. BJP has the upper hand in Salumbar. After the death of three-time MLA late Amritlal Meena, there will be a sympathy factor, but Bharat Adivasi Party and Congress have joined hands in places like Banswara Lok Sabha seat which can become a challenge for BJP. In this election, the demand to declare Udaipur to Banswad State Mega Highway as a national highway and to send Jaisamand water to Udaipur through a small pipeline is a big election issue. Apart from these, the issue of declaring Chavand site associated with Maharana Pratap as a national monument and expanding Salumber district and connecting Aspur, Sambla, Dhariyavad will also play an important role.
Dausa assembly seat
The prestige of both BJP government minister Kirori Lal Meena and Congress leader Sachin Pilot is attached to Dausa assembly seat. Murari Lal Meena of Congress was elected MP from Dausa, after which this seat became vacant. Before 2013, this seat was considered the stronghold of BJP, but Murari Lal Meena, close to Sachin Pilot, strengthened the Congress by capturing this seat. It has been a challenge for BJP for the last ten years. Shankar Sharma had won the Dausa assembly seat in the year 2013. However, after this he had to face defeat from Congress candidate Murari Lal Meena in the years 2018 and 2023. Murari Lal defeated Shankar Sharma this time by 31204 votes. Most of the voters in Dausa seat are from ST category. The SC-ST alliance had defeated BJP in Dausa seat. The number of general voters on this is third. In the year 2023, there are 128106 male voters, 114980 female voters, total 243086 voters. In the year 2024, a total of 246012 voters including 129422 male voters and 116590 female voters are in Dausa Assembly seat.
eighty-fourth assembly seat
Eighty-four assembly seats, which were once a stronghold of Congress, have now been completely captured by the BAP party. The BAP party seems strong on the seat vacated by Rajkumar Rot becoming MP. Chaurasi assembly constituency bordering Rajasthan and Gujarat is 90 percent tribal dominated assembly constituency. This assembly has traditionally been a stronghold of the Congress, but in the last two elections, a new party, the Bharat Adivasi Party, has strengthened its hold here and the current MP from here, Rajkumar Roat, has won a big victory. The main issues of this assembly constituency still remain migration, water shortage and employment. Even in the by-elections, Bharat Adivasi Party seems to have the upper hand because in the elections held in 2018 and 2023, Bharat Adivasi Party had won by a huge margin. Due to this, Bharat Adivasi Party seems to have the upper hand in this by-election also. At present, there is no discussion going on about the alliance between Bharat Adivasi Party and Congress, but if there is an alliance between Congress and Bharat Adivasi Party, then it can definitely be said that Bharat Adivasi Party will win here even in the elections held earlier. Will achieve a big victory. In 2008, Shankarlal Ahari of Congress became MLA here. 2013 Sushil Katara of BJP won, but after that in 2018 Rajkumar Rot first became MLA from BTP and then in 2023 Rajkumar Rot from BAP Party.
Jhunjhunu assembly seat
Jhunjhunu district is adjacent to Haryana. The assembly seat of Jhunjhunu district has become vacant after MLA Brijendra Ola became MP. By-election will be held for the second time on this seat if the MLA becomes MP. Earlier in 1996, by-election was held after Shishram Ola became MP, in which BJP opened its account on this seat. There are about 260408 voters in Jhunjhunu assembly constituency. Of these, 133995 are male voters and 122970 are female voters. In the assembly elections held in the year 2023, Brijendra Ola of Congress defeated Nishit Chaudhary of BJP by 28,863 votes. Whereas Rajendra, who was a BJP rebel and contested the elections as an independent candidate, got 42,408 votes. Jhunjhunu has the maximum number of 65 thousand Jat voters. After these there are 45 thousand voters from Muslim community. Whereas, 40 thousand of SC, 30 thousand of Rajput, 23 thousand of gardener, 18 thousand of Brahmin, 8 thousand of potter, 7 thousand of Vaishya, 7 thousand of Khati, 4 thousand of Gurjar, 3 thousand 500 of ST, 500 of barber There are 2 thousand and 1 thousand 500 voters of Swami Samaj.
